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According to that poll, any cut would come towards the end of the year, by which time there would be a clear indication of whether India had a good monsoon, crucial in a country where most of the population depends on agriculture and which will keep food inflation in check.Having sunk to its lowest level for at least five years in January, consumer price inflation is expected to have risen to 3."Signaling its worries about inflation, the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets last week in raising the secondary reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.Indias central bank raised its inflation projections for the 2017/18 fiscal year starting April, expecting the index to average 4.

Adverse base effects will underpin the fuel and commodity related components, though the sharp rupee gains will help cap imported price pressures.65 per cent, according to the median forecast of 30 economists.00 per cent.55 percent in February, according to Tuesdays poll.Industrial output is seen rising 1.Such an uptick in prices could force the RBI, which ended a long easing cycle in February by changing its policy stance to neutral from accommodative, to raise interest rates for the first time in over three years.0 per cent in the second, taking it above the RBIs medium-term target.Bengaluru: Indias inflation is seen climbing to within touching distance of the Reserve Bank of Indias 4 per cent medium-term target in March, driven by higher food costs, a Reuters poll found, backing policymakers decision last week to move to a defacto tightening bias.7 per cent in January, the poll found..Wholesale price inflation is expected to have slowed last month, to 5. It kept the key policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25 per cent.98 percent from 6.The March inflation foldable gazebo rate is due to be released at 1200 GMT on April 12.5 per cent in the first half and 5.That is in contrast to a recent Reuters poll in which economists indicated borrowing costs would more likely fall than rise.

There are no clear succession plans in the Westminster model as legislators must gather to elect their leader again, unlike the presidential form. Bommai ruling.Even the Centre can’t do anything, such as using Article 356 to dismiss her government, as it will be contrary to the Supreme Court’s guidelines in the S. These parties run only on the charisma of the leader and ideally the party should cease to exist once the leader departs. For example, AIADMK ministers, legislators and key office-bearers have already mastered careerism for a very long time now to an extent that careerism became the DNA of AIADMK legislators and key office-bearers.

The top leader is elected — that will augur well for the party. The court can not only overturn the dismissal of a state government but also resurrect the Assembly and the state government. The Congress, DMK and Akali Dal are examples of this category. The second and third categories of parties have clear succession plans as they are more concerned about complete hold of the parties by their families. However, they also know that they can reap the maximum benefits by being in power in a united manner for the remaining four years and three months. Today it is Sasikala’s turn. Only if the party accepts his/her claims for the top post can such a leader reach that position. The issue before TN is gloomier than simply Sasikala’s ascendency. It is extremely difficult for many to understand how a lady who hasn’t even been in politics can become Tamil Nadu’s head of government with such ease. When Lalu Prasad Yadav had to resign as Bihar CM, he made Rabri, his little-educated wife with no interest or experience in politics, his successor as CM, ignoring all senior party colleagues.

Although a servile attitude prevails among the second, third and fourth categories of parties, it takes a new avatar of "short-term careerism" in the fourth category of political parties.In this backdrop, there should be crystal-clear succession plans if the leader departs from the scene for any reason. AIADMK backers, however, fear that if the party under Sasikala seeks votes in any local body or parliamentary election, it may be marginalised in the hustings.Given our political milieu of umpteen undemocratic parties, the theoretical Westminster form and practical presidential model has been costing our democracy much more than we think. Despite this, they still supported Sasiklala’s ascendency to the twin posts of party chief and Tamil Nadu CM. For instance, in the United States, which follows the presidential form of government, if the President can no longer serve, the  vice-president takes over, followed by high constitutional functionaries and Cabinet members in the designated line of succession for the remaining term.In addition to this, the electoral and governance model we follow also makes the political system murkier.. But, in practice, to a significant extent, India follows presidential form, whereby parties fight polls announcing overtly or covertly who will be their CM or PM if elected to power and people elect representatives loyal to the leader of their choice. If she is disqualified, she could make one of her relatives from Mannargudi CM or even pick an MLA of her’s and her family’s choice as a puppet. The third category of has originated from inception with the clear intention of running it as a family party. India has at least Wholesale Party Tent Suppliers four categories of political parties, with varying degrees of practised democracy, although all of them claim to be fully democratic parties.

There is a fourth category called one-man or one-woman party, where there may not be any succession plans as the party begins and ends at the leader with no questions being asked about anything, including succession or future plans. However, these parties will openly nurture the family members of the patriarch or matriarch to prepare them to assume the mantle in future. In the absence of such clear protocols for replacement, in non-democratic political parties, anyone can become leader of the government.It is better to understand why such things happen in India so regularly, violating democratic norms. India, in theory, follows the Westminster form of government, where people elect MPs and MLAs who in turn elect the Prime Minister or chief minister after the election.

These AIADMK men know very well that in the absence of the charismatic Jayalalithaa, there is no political future for them. Careerists don’t mind being dishonest, hypocritical, servile, unscrupulous and unethical and do not bother about the loss of dignity and self-respect in that process).R. They prefer short-term careerism than a long-standing tenure in politics.It may not need an opinion poll to sense how so much of Tamil Nadu’s citizenry is angry and sad on hearing the news that Sasikala was all set to become their next chief minister. Even if she is defeated in the byelection she has to contest to enter the Assembly, she could appoint one of the sitting AIADMK MLAs as a dummy CM and rule by proxy. For instance, in a truly democratic party, whose aim is stay for a long time in politics based on ideology, those desiring to reach the top post should exhibit eminence and popularity over other leaders.The second category of parties originated as democratic entities but due to lust for power for the family by top leaders, the parties degenerated into family parties. For all practical purposes, our elections and governance have been moving towards a presidential form. The top brass is invariably elected based on their popularity in the party and among the public. ("Careerism" refers to the derogatory practice of people who do anything to advance their own careers. The AIADMK, Trinamul Congress and BSP belong to this category. It is the structure of the political party that made them completely irrelevant when their charismatic leader departed. The RJD, SP and TRS belong to this category, and they follow the same philosophy as the second category of parties. Unless otherwise political parties are arm-twisted to become truly democratic and India moves towards a presidential form of government, directly electing CMs and PMs, with the succession plans spelt out in black and white, there is no solution in sight that would prevent the Sasikalas or Rabri Devis becoming CMs. In the first category, leaders for the top posts either in the party or government are not decided on their blood relationship with their predecessors.

There is virtually no recourse available to anyone that could stop Sasikala becoming CM or force her to step down from the CM’s post unless she is disqualified in one or other court cases she has faced for decades.The AIADMK and DMK have perfected the art of winning byelections unscrupulously by scientifically bribing voters with direct cash transfers, and there’s no reason to believe Sasikala will lose the byelection.Why did the AIADMK party in the first instance and subsequently AIADMK legislators remain accomplices to these unpopular and self-sabotaging decisions? For that, we must understand the structure and nature of various parties in India and how they function. Thus, MLAs and MPs are just a cog in the wheel with no special appeal to voters, unlike the leaders. The question of someone completely unconnected with the party, politics or public service occupying the top post either in the party or government through the back door does not arise in this category of parties. In democratic parties, there are some checks and balances. She was elected by AIADMK Legislature Party members and the party has a clear majority in the Assembly, so irrespective of what the people of TN may wish, she can become CM. Jayalalithaa’s remaining tenure. The BJP and Communist parties belong to this category. Nevertheless, Sasikala can become CM and may even complete the four years and three months of the late J. However, there is no bar on scions of leaders from becoming party members and allow them to contest elections and occupy legislative and ministerial positions.

The DMK’s logic is that ‘defectors’ from the AIADMK would have a price, and they would not mind going back to the parent body in whatever length of time, between now and the Assembly polls. The AIADMK campaign managers claim that they were all party votes, which got diverted because of the infighting between local and state-level factions within the AIADMK, in the aftermath of Chief Minister Jayalalilthaa’s death in December 2016. It was under Stalin’s leadership that the DMK for any ‘Opposition party’ in the State, has won the highest-ever tally. By the same argument, the MDMK ally in the DMK-led combine too has to be seen as bringing in its votes in Nanguneri to the Congress candidate, the more so if he fails to make the grade even for other reasons. Else, party strategists feel, the PMK may ‘resort’ to the old game of playing the AIADMK against the DMK in seat-sharing talks for the 2021 Assembly polls.

The party’s Dalit-strong VCK ally representing the Adi Dravidar sub-sect, has substantial vote-share in Vikravandi, but it remains to be seen if the VCK can transfer its vote-share to the DMK.Mixed responseBy all reckoning, the by-elections are not going to be easy for the ruling party, with all its allies, which include the PMK in Vikravandi.They also rule out ‘internal sabotage’, pointing out that neither Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, nor Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, has a base to call his own in either of the two by-poll constituencies.For the DMK in Nanguneri, local leaders wanted the party to continue with the alliance formula for the by-election..On paper, thus, the two by-elections are evenly poised, especially considering that two minor ‘independent’ parties, founded by actor-politicians, Kamal Haasan (MNM) and Seeman (NTK), had polled respectable vote-shares for newcomers in what otherwise was a one-sided poll.Evenly poised, but.In other States in the country, stand-alone Assembly by-elections are won or lost by the ruling party of the day, depending on a variety of issues, including the choice of the candidate, local issues and conditions, etc.. According to them, the AIADMK votes in these constituencies, and also those that went to the breakaway AMMK of TTV Dhinakaran, were all ‘party votes’, better called ‘MGR-Jayalalithaa votes’.The fact that PMK founder S Ramadoss, along with son and former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi a few days ago in New Delhi may signify the continued relevance of the PMK to the BJP Government leader at the Centre, but it can have, at best, a mixed response from the party-sympathetic voters in Vikravandi.Whatever that be, with the State Assembly polls due by May 2021, and given the severe drubbing in the LS polls, and also the poor show in the accompanying 22-seat Assembly by-polls, the ruling party in the State is under absolute compulsion to win the two bypoll seats, and by substantial margin.

The Vikravandi seat fell vacant following the death of the incumbent DMK legislator.Should the AIADMK lose both seats, or even one of them, once again the talk of an imminent fall of the EPS-OPS duo Government in the State would begin doing the rounds, as it has been through much of the past three years of post-Jaya politics in the State.By winning both, or even one seat, which itself could prove tough for the DMK combine in the two-seat by-polls, against the battery of State ministers camping over there, the leadership seemingly hopes to unsettle the ‘stability image’ that the EPS Government has managed to instil again in the State’s electorate, AIADMK cadres and foreign investors, at least since the five-seat Assembly by-poll victory in the 22-seat round in April. In 2001 Assembly polls, the DMK-led combine won 98 of the 234 Assembly seats, next only to the AIADMK’s Congress ally in 1991.The irony for the AIADMK is that the party’s PMK ally does not have any votes in Nanguneri and the BJP does not have a base in Vikravandi. A lot will depend on the DMK’s willingness to encourage defection from the AIADMK, which the Stalin leadership was seen as being reluctant to attempt through the past months and years, since Jayalalithaa’s death. The constituency having voted an ‘outsider’ in Vasanth Kumar earlier, the Congress and the leader of the alliance DMK are not overly concerned. Even the DMK cadres elsewhere, leave aside the Congress, still with a decisive vote-share of minorities and others in the State, may have concluded that the leadership was apprehensive about the BJP ruling the Centre, just as the AIADMK is being charged with, by them. The question remains if the PMK would be able to transfer all those votes to the AIADMK ally this time round, considering that the party has lost some of its natural base in the Vanniar community region since inception close to 25 years ago.

For the Vanniar community voters, from the nation’s First General Elections of 1952, have consistently preferred regional and/or sub-regional parties against national parties, first the ruling Congress of the time at the Centre and in the State, and the BJP at the Centre, since. For the DMK alliance, Vikravandi does not have too many Congress votes, and for historic reasons. In some cases, he himself had facilitated such ‘defections’ through the past couple of decades, but they were only in districts and constituencies where the DMK second line was acknowledged to be weak.Instability and worse... The rival DMK, which all but swept the Lok Sabha seats with a 38-1 tally against the AIADMK led alliance with BJP and others, with the two parties ruling both in the State and at the Centre, took away the remaining 13, breaking the precedents of recent decades. The national party won a high of 63 seats in the post-Rajiv Gandhi assassination polls at the time, and Jayalalithaa as the first-time Chief Minister sought only to drive a wedge with Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao’s leadership through the next five years, and also within the Congress Legislature Party nearer home.In southern Nanguneri, the fight is between the Congress, whose candidate, is once again a non-native, while the AIADMK has fielded a local leader. Not in ‘Dravidian’ Tamil Nadu, where over the past nearly a quarter century, the ruling party - be it the incumbent AIADMK of the present or the parent DMK - have been winning all by-elections, barring those that were held along with the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year.  To an extent the DMK second-line leadership is under test for the Congress to decide on the Assembly poll combine in 2021 - as much as it is the other way round.  In their reckoning, almost all of the AMMK voters have returned to the parent-fold after Dhinakaran’s poor showing in the LS polls. If only to stabilise the party’s strength in the State Assembly and requiring a minimum of five seats in a total of 22 bypolls, the ruling party managed to win nine seats.  At the end of it all, this may be worse for the AIADMK during the long run-up to the Assembly polls in 2021, as against a two-seat victory, which does not automatically guarantee cheers through the next 18 months or so. Incidentally, vacancy in Nanguneri was caused by the resignation of Congress MLA, H Vasanth Kumar, after his winning the native Nagercoil Lok Sabha seat, by an unprecedented margin for the constituency - and against the BJP’s lone Union Minister from the State, Pon Radhakrishnan. Some State BJP social media activists have also introduced an element of religion into the Nanguneri campaign, saying that the Congress has fielded a Christian candidate in a constituency with a substantial Hindu-Nadar and majority Hindu voters. Having established himself as a stand-alone leader within the party after the demise of father M Karunanidhi in March 2017, Stalin would not want ‘defectors’ to unsettle local DMK cadres and second-line leaders in different parts of the State, more than already. However, after seeking the BJP support after openly seeking it in the light of some State party leaders demanding such an open request, the AIADMK feels more comfortable. That is to say, it has to win the Vikravandi seat, especially by a margin that does not provide for the PMK’s support.The question remains: Between the two, who will win the two Assembly by-elections - from Vikravandi in the north and Nanguneri in the deep south. In a by-election, they argue, those numbers will matter a lot.(The writer is Distinguished Fellow and Head - Chennai Initiative, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi). In Nanguneri, at the same time, the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) ally of the AIADMK in the LS polls, representing the Devendra Kula Vellalar (DVK) sub-sect of the Dalit community, has declared that it was not continuing with the tie-up from the past. The latter polled a very respectable 40,000 votes in the 2011 Assembly polls, with the AIADMK taking the second place after the DMK victor. However, party president MK Stalin decided otherwise, and let the Congress, which was holding the seat, to field its nominee, lest it should send out a wrong message, at the national-level.And for the DMK and Stalin in particular, he cannot be seen by cadres and voters alike that the LS poll sweep was a ‘one-time fluke’ and he is at best a ‘respectable loser’ compared to Custom Canopy Suppliers his late father Karunanidhi. While the ruling AIADMK has kept to the LS poll alliance-deal, and fielded candidates in the two constituencies, the DMK has significantly given away the southern Nanguneri seat to its ally Congress.